89th Academy Awards Predictions

Welcome, to this year's Academy Awards predictions!  This year has been one of the easiest to predict, based solely on the universal adoration of La La Land. But the Academy Awards are always liable to throw in a surprise or two (looking at you "Ex Machina".) Hopefully, I can help you win your work/school/friend/personal Oscar pool.

(Note: There is an easy to use "Winners" list at the bottom of this page)

BEST PICTURE

Nominees:

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

This category started as a wider race, but Manchester by the Sea has seemingly fallen out of favor in recent months. At this point, the award is La La Land's to lose, and the only real competition seems to be Moonlight. However, there is always a chance that immensely popular latecomer Hidden Figures sneaks in. I'm going with the safe bet and picking La La Land

WILL WIN: La La Land

COULD WIN: Moonlight

SHOULD WIN: La La Land or Moonlight

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Jackie and Captain Fantastic

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees:

Dennis Villeneuve - Arrival

Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge

Damien Chazelle - La La Land

Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea

Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

This is actually harder to pick than Best Picture. There have been multiple splits in this category of the past few years, and it is definitely possible that if La La Land wins Best Picture, this is the place to honor Moonlight. That being said, it is hard to bet against La La Land for the major categories and Chazelle did an excellent job. Even though there is small chance that he ends up winning, look to see Villeneuve become a regular in this category in coming years.

WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

COULD WIN: Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

SHOULD WIN: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Martin Scorsese - Silence

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees:

Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling - La La Land

Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington - Fences

For the entire award season up until December, this was Casey Affleck's award. However, with a SAG win, Denzel Washington is suddenly the front runner. I am very tempted to pick Affleck who gave an excellent performance, but it would be foolish to bet against a performance like Denzel's in Fences. Even though this isn't the year, I'm hoping Viggo gets an Oscar at some point.

WILL WIN: Denzel Washington - Fences

COULD WIN: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea

SHOULD WIN: Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Colin Farrell - The Lobster

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees:

Isabelle Huppert - Elle

Ruth Negga - Loving

Natalie Portman - Jackie

Emma Stone - La La Land

Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins

At some point they are just going to rename this "the Streep Award." That said, this is not Meryl's year. This award was always thought to be between Portman and Stone, but Huppert has been getting some attention lately. In the end though, I think that Emma Stone will run away with Best Actress and continue La La Land's big night. Side note: I am still not over the Amy Adams snub. 

WILL WIN: Emma Stone - La La Land

COULD WIN: Isabelle Huppert - Elle

SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman - Jackie

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Amy Adams - Arrival

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees:

Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel - Lion

Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals

This is one of those years when both Supporting awards seem relatively set in stone. Outside of a Golden Globes loss, Ali has won almost every single possible award for his performance in Moonlight, and deservedly so! Dev Patel was excellent in Lion, and newcomer Lucas Hedges has a very bright future, but it is definitely Ali's night. 

WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

COULD WIN: Dev Patel - Lion

SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Hugh Grant - Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees:

Viola Davis - Fences

Naomie Harris - Moonlight

Nicole Kidman - Lion

Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

This is even easier to predict that Supporting Actor. It will be Viola Davis, and she hands down deserves it. It is a shame that Naomie Harris's Moonlight performance was not in a different year, because it is truly incredible.

WILL WIN: Viola Davis - Fences

COULD WIN: Naomie Harris - Moonlight

SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis or Naomie Harris

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Janelle Monáe - Moonlight

BEST WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees:

Taylor Sheridan - Hell or High Water

Damien Chazelle - La La Land

Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou - The Lobster

Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea

Mike Mills - 20th Century Women

I am not seeing nearly as big of a night for Manchester by the Sea as I did in November, but this is the one award I cannot see slipping away from Lonergan and co. His screenplay was the driving force behind an incredible movie. That said, the Writers Guild awarded Moonlight in this category, a film that is nominated as Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars, so it could end up falling to La La Land if the love for that film is as strong as some pundits have predicted. Personally, I would love for The Lobster to sneak one away for sheer creativity, but it isn't going to happen

WILL WIN: Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea

COULD WIN: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

SHOULD WIN: Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou - The Lobster

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Noah Oppenheim - Jackie

BEST WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees:

Eric Heisserer - Arrival

August Wilson - Fences

Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi - Hidden Figures

Luke Davies - Lion

Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney - Moonlight

Screenplay awards are harder to predict this year than usual, all thanks to Moonlight. Moonlight was nominated as an Original Screenplay at most other awards, so it is up against a different crowd. However, none of that will likely matter, as it should run away with this award. There is always a chance that this is Arrivals surprise win of the night, and I do think it will surprisingly win one. 

WILL WIN: Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney - Moonlight

COULD WIN: Eric Heisserer - Arrival

SHOULD WIN: Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney - Moonlight

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Tom Ford - Nocturnal Animals

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Nominees:

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Zootopia has been sweeping this category throughout the year and I don't see that changing tonight, though both Moana and Kubo and the Two Strings have been getting some buzz. Kubo is particularly possible, since it is only the second Animated film to be nominated for Visual Effects (Nightmare Before Christmas.)   

WILL WIN: Zootopia

COULD WIN: Moana

SHOULD WIN: Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees:

Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

WILL WIN: O.J.: Made in America

COULD WIN: 13th

SHOULD WIN: O.J. Made in America or 13th

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees:

Denmark - Land of Mine

Sweden - A Man Called Ove

Iran - The Salesman

Australia - Tanna

Germany - Toni Erdmann

WILL WIN: Iran - The Salesman

COULD WIN: Germany - Toni Erdmann

SHOULD WIN: Germany - Toni Erdmann

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees:

Bradford Young - Arrival

Linus Sandgren - La La Land

Greig Fraser - Lion

James Laxton - Moonlight

Rodrigo Prieto - Silence

WILL WIN: Linus Sandgren - La La Land

COULD WIN: James Laxton - Moonlight

SHOULD WIN: Rodrigo Prieto - Silence

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees:

Joanna Johnston - Allied

Colleen Atwood - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Consolata Boyle - Florence Foster Jenkins

Madeline Fontaine - Jackie

Mary Zophres - La La Land

WILL WIN: Mary Zophres - La La Land

COULD WIN: Madeline Fontaine - Jackie

SHOULD WIN: Madeline Fontaine - Jackie

BEST FILM EDITING

Nominees:

Joe Walker - Arrival

John Gilbert - Hacksaw Ridge

Jake Roberts - Hell or High Water

Tom Cross - La La Land

Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon - Moonlight

WILL WIN: Tom Cross - La La Land

COULD WIN: Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon - Moonlight

SHOULD WIN: Tom Cross - La La Land

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Nominees:

Eva von Bahr and Love Larson - A Man Called Ove

Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo - Star Trek Beyond

Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson - Suicide Squad

WILL WIN: Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo - Star Trek Beyond

COULD WIN: Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson - Suicide Squad

SHOULD WIN:Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo - Star Trek Beyond

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Nominees:

Mica Levi - Jackie

Justin Hurwitz - La La Land

Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka - Lion

Nicholas Britell - Moonlight

Thomas Newman - Passengers

WILL WIN: Justin Hurwitz - La La Land

COULD WIN: Mica Levi - Jackie

SHOULD WIN: Justin Hurwitz - La La Land

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Nominees:

Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek, and Justin Paul - "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land

Justin Timberlake, Max Martin, and Karl Johan Schuster (Shellback) - "Can't Stop the Feeling!" from Trolls

Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek, and Justin Paul - "City of Stars" from La La Land

J. Ralph and Sting - "The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story

Lin-Manuel Miranda - "How Far I'll Go" from Moana

WILL WIN: Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek, and Justin Paul - "City of Stars" from La La Land

COULD WIN: Lin-Manuel Miranda - "How Far I'll Go" from Moana

SHOULD WIN: Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek, and Justin Paul - "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees:

Patrice Vermette/Paul Hotte - Arrival

Stuart Craig/Anna Pinnock - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Jess Gonchor/Nancy Haigh - Hail, Caesar!

David Wasco/Sandy Reynolds-Wasco - La La Land

Guy Hendrix Dyas/Gene Serdena - Passengers

WILL WIN: David Wasco/Sandy Reynolds-Wasco - La La Land

COULD WIN: Patrice Vermette/Paul Hotte - Arrival

SHOULD WIN: David Wasco/Sandy Reynolds-Wasco - La La Land

BEST SOUND EDITING

Nominees:

Sylvain Bellemare - Arrival

Wylie Stateman and Renée Tondelli - Deepwater Horizon

Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright - Hacksaw Ridge

Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan - La La Land

Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman - Sully

WILL WIN: Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright - Hacksaw Ridge

COULD WIN: Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan - La La Land

SHOULD WIN: Sylvain Bellemare - Arrival

BEST SOUND MIXING

Nominees:

Bernard Gariépy Strobl and Claude La Haye - Arrival

Kevin O'Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace - Hacksaw Ridge

Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow - La La Land

David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio, and Stuart Wilson - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, and Mac Ruth - 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

WILL WIN: Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow - La La Land

COULD WIN: Kevin O'Connel, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace - Hacksaw Ridge

SHOULD WIN: Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow - La La Land

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees:

Craig Hammock, Jason Snell, Jason Billington, and Burt Dalton - Deepwater Horizon

Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, and Paul Corbould - Doctor Strange

Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon - The Jungle Book

Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean, and Brad Schiff - Kubo and the Two Strings

John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

WILL WIN: Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon - The Jungle Book

COULD WIN: Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, and Paul Corbould - Doctor Strange

SHOULD WIN: John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Nominees:

Extremis

4.1 Miles

Joe's Violin

Watani: My Homeland

The White Helmets

WILL WIN: The White Helmets

COULD WIN: Joe's Violin

SHOULD WIN: Extremis

BEST SHORT FILM - ANIMATED

Nominees:

Blind Vaysha

Borrowed Time

Pear Cider and Cigarettes

Pearl

Piper

WILL WIN: Piper

COULD WIN: Blind Vaysha

SHOULD WIN: Piper

BEST SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION

Nominees:

Ennemis intérieurs

La Femme et le TGV

Silent Nights

Sing

Timecode

WILL WIN: Ennemis intérieurs

COULD WIN: Timecode

SHOULD WIN: Ennemis intérieurs

EASY TO READ WINNER LIST

Best Picture: La La Land

Best Director: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

Best Actor: Denzel Washington - Fences

Best Actress: Emma Stone - La La Land

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis - Fences

Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight

Best Writing - Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea

Best Animated Feature: Zootopia

Best Documentary Feature: O.J.: Made in America

Best Foreign Language Film: The Salesman

Best Cinematography: La La Land

Best Costume Design: La La Land

Best Film Editing: La La Land

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond

Best Music (Original Score): La La Land

Best Music (Original Song): "City of Stars" from La La Land

Best Production Design: La La Land

Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge

Best Sound Mixing: La La Land

Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book

Best Documentary Short Subject: The White Helmets

Best Short Film - Animated: Piper

Best Short Film - Live Action: Ennemis intérieurs