88th Oscar Predictions

Welcome, to this year's Academy Awards predictions!  It is a confusing year, with three obvious front runners and questions in a lot of categories.  Last year, I predicted 21 of the 24 correct with my "WILL WIN" predictions and the remaining 3 correct with the "COULD WIN" predictions.  Let's see how we can stack up this year.  I hope I can help you win your work/school/friend/personal Oscar pool.

(Note: There is an easy to use "Winners" list at the bottom of this page)

BEST PICTURE

Nominees:

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

This has essentially become an almost evenly divided three movie race, between The Big Short, Spotlight and The Revenant.  Whereas other awards shows are usually good predictors, PGA awarded The Big Short, SAG award Spotlight and BAFTA/DGA awarded The Revenant.  This has led a lot to assume The Revenant is going to take home the big award, but I am not one of them and here is why:  

1. The PGA winner has gone on to win Best Picture for 8 straight years, so I take it as the best predictor 
2. The Big Short and Spotlight are similar, in that they are both heady conspiracy related films.  The Revenant is brutal, violent and very artistic.  I doubt this year will be settled on first place votes alone, and while I imagine The Revenant may lead in 1st votes, it definitely has those who didn't enjoy it.  It is a lot more likely to have 1st place votes on some ballots and 4th or 5th place votes on others.  I doubt that The Big Short or Spotlight has many voting below 2nd or 3rd.  Those who have Spotlight 1st seem a lot more likely to have The Big Short as their 2nd place choice, and vice versa.  
3. Spotlight won SAG, which is the biggest Academy voting group, but I'm willing to bet that The Big Short gets more love from directors and they won the aforementioned producers (PGA). 

It is a very close race between these three, but I see it ending up being The Big Short, Spotlight and then The Revenant in voting.  This is admittedly a bold choice, and you all might be smarter to play it safe on The Revenant.  I'm taking calculated risks this year.

WILL WIN: The Big Short

COULD WIN: Spotlight

SHOULD WIN: The Big Short or Spotlight

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Steve Jobs and Straight Outta Compton

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees:

Adam McKay - The Big Short

George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road

Alejandro G. Iñárittu - The Revenant

Lenny Abrahamson - Room

Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

It looks like this may well be another year when Best Director and Best Picture are split, which is becoming increasingly common, happening at both the 85th and 86th Academy Awards.  The two frontrunners seem to be George Miller and Alejandro G. Iñárittu (the reigning champion).  A big part of me wants to go with Miller, as he did an excellent job in a very complicated film and is a director who has never been honored with a Best Director statue (though he did win Animated Feature for Happy Feet).  In the end though, I think that it is Iñárittu's award to lose, as the scope of The Revenant and nominated performances for both primary actors and almost every technical category will vault him over fan favorite Miller.  While both of these are excellent choices, my personal vote would be for Tom McCarthy, based mostly on how excellent the direction of the ensemble cast was in Spotlight. 

WILL WIN: Alejandro G. Iñárittu - The Revenant

COULD WIN: George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road

SHOULD WIN: Spotlight - Tom McCarthy

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Ridley Scott - The Martian

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees:

Bryan Cranston - Trumbo

Matt Damon - The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant

Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl

Of all the categories this year, this is definitely the easiest to predict. Leonardo DiCaprio is going to earn his Oscar and the internet can find somebody new to joke about.  In all seriousness though, he definitely deserves this.  Were it not the year of Leo, Michael Fassbender would have probably walked away with the statue in an amazing turn as the tech icon Steve Jobs.  Alas, Fassbender will win one of these days.  

WILL WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant

COULD WIN: Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs

SHOULD WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Steve Carrell - The Big Short

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees:

Cate Blanchett - Carol

Brie Larson - Room

Jennifer Lawrence - Joy

Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn

This award is almost as set in stone as Best Actor, though there is a chance that Ronan could sneak through with a win for her turn in Brooklyn.  Brie Larson is so excellent in Room, it was definitely my favorite acting performance of the year.  She is somebody that we can look forward to seeing in this category year in and year out if she keeps up the excellent work she did here. 

WILL WIN: Brie Larson - Room

COULD WIN: Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn

SHOULD WIN: Brie Larson - Room

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: They nailed these nominations, but Rooney Mara should have been lead for Carol

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees:

Christian Bale - The Big Short

Tom Hardy - The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight

Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone - Creed

This award seems deceptively set in stone.  In the end, I still think that Sylvester Stallone will come out on top, mostly due to him being a Hollywood legend who has never been honored, plus the poetic nature of him coming back to win for the same role that gave him his previous sole acting nomination 40 years later.  While I personally don't think it is the best supporting role of the year by any means, I understand why he will probably win.  Why it is murky is the largest voting group, the Screen Actors Guild, didn't even have him as a nominee.  Idris Elba, who isn't nominated here, won their supporting actor award.  This means that somebody like Mark Rylance or Mark Ruffalo could sneak in if the Stallone support is a smoke screen, but I certainly doubt that is the case for Sly.

WILL WIN: Sylvester Stallone - Creed

COULD WIN: Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies

SHOULD WIN: Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Idris Elba - Beats of No Nation

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees:

Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara - Carol

Rachel McAdams - Spotlight

Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs

Were this truly a group of "supporting" actresses, I think that Kate Winslet would run away with it.  That being said, both Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander did incredible jobs in their roles and both deserve recognition of some sort.  It really comes down to these two in what once looked like a tight race, but I think in the end it will go to newcomer Vikander (who I wish could be nominated multiple times so she could also have a nod for Ex Machina).

WILL WIN: Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl

COULD WIN: Rooney Mara - Carol

SHOULD WIN: Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Alicia Vikander - Ex Machina

BEST WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees:

Charles Randolph and Adam McKay - The Big Short

Nick Hornby - Brooklyn

Phyllis Nagy - Carol

Drew Goddard - The Martian

Emma Donoghue - Room

This category threw me for a loop when they didn't nominate Aaron Sorkin for his brilliant, other award-winning screenplay for Steve Jobs.  This leaves a category with 4/5 nominees being Best Picture nominees, one of which stands out in terms of an adaptation.  This is very likely to go to The Big Short, a seemingly unadaptable novel written into a fantastic movie, with Brooklyn as a runner up.  

WILL WIN: Charles Randolph and Adam McKay - The Big Short

COULD WIN: Nick Hornby - Brooklyn

SHOULD WIN: Charles Randolph and Adam McKay - The Big Short

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Aaron Sorkin - Steve Jobs

BEST WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees:

Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen - Bridge of Spies

Alex Garland - Ex Machina

Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley and Ronnie del Carmen - Inside Out

Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge and Alan Wenkus - Straight Outta Compton

This award could go a lot of ways.  Early indications, which I'm going to stick with, imply that Spotlight will come out on top, but I've heard some noise from every other film.  Bridge of Spies is a possibility because it is hard to bet against the Coen Brothers.  Ex Machina was a brilliant piece of science fiction.  Inside Out would be a big win for animated films.  Straight Outta Compton, which should have been nominated in other categories, could win for this being its only nomination of the night.  In the end, the excellent screenplay by Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy looks to be the big winner.

WILL WIN: Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

COULD WIN: Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley and Ronnie del Carmen - Inside Out

SHOULD WIN: Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Quentin Tarantino - The Hateful Eight

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Nominees:

Anomalisa

Boy and the World

Inside Out

Shaun the Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

There was a brief time when it was thought that Kaufman's incredible, more adult-oriented, animated film Anomalisa could surprise and pull off the win, but this was always going to be Inside Out.  For the rest of the films, it is nice to be nominated, but this has two clear heavy weights and one that is going to be hailed as a children's classic for years to come.  

WILL WIN: Inside Out

COULD WIN: Anomalisa

SHOULD WIN: Inside Out or Anomalisa

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees:

Amy

Cartel Land

The Look of Silence

What Happened, Miss Simone?

Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

WILL WIN: Amy

COULD WIN: Cartel Land

SHOULD WIN: Amy

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees:

Colombia - Embrace the Serpent

France - Mustang

Hungary - Son of Saul

Jordan - Theeb

Denmark - A War

WILL WIN: Hungary - Son of Saul

COULD WIN: France - Mustang

SHOULD WIN: Hungary - Son of Saul

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees:

Ed Lachman - Carol

Robert Richardson - The Hateful Eight

John Seale - Mad Max: Fury Road

Emmanuel Lubezki - The Revenant

Roger Deakins - Sicario

WILL WIN: Emmanuel Lubezki - The Revenant

COULD WIN: Roger Deakins - Sicario

SHOULD WIN: Emmanuel Lubezki - The Revenant

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees:

Sandy Powell - Carol

Sandy Powell - Cindarella

Paco Delgado - The Danish Girl

Jenny Beavan - Mad Max: Fury Road

Jacqueline West - The Revenant

WILL WIN: Jenny Beavan - Mad Max: Fury Road

COULD WIN: Sandy Powell - Cindarella

SHOULD WIN: Jenny Beavan - Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST FILM EDITING

Nominees:

Hank Corwin - The Big Short

Margaret Sixel - Mad Max: Fury Road

Stephen Mirrione - The Revenant

Tom McArdle - Spotlight

Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WILL WIN: Hank Corwin - The Big Short

COULD WIN: Margaret Sixel - Mad Max: Fury Road

SHOULD WIN: Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Nominees:

Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin - Mad Max: Fury Road

Love Larson and Eva von Bahr - The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared 

Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini - The Revenant

WILL WIN: Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin - Mad Max: Fury Road

COULD WIN: Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini - The Revenant

SHOULD WIN: Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin - Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Nominees:

Thomas Newman - Bridge of Spies

Carter Burwell - Carol 

Ennio Morricone - The Hateful Eight

Jóhann Jóhannsson - Sicario

John Williams - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WILL WIN: Ennio Morricone - The Hateful Eight

COULD WIN: John Williams - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

SHOULD WIN: Ennio Morricone - The Hateful Eight or Carter Burwell - Carol

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Nominees:

The Weeknd, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephen Moccio - "Earned It" from Fifty Shades of Grey

J. Ralph and Anohni - "Manta Ray" from Racing Extinction 

David Lang - "Simple Song #3" from Youth

Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith - "Writing's on the Wall" from Spectre

Diane Warren and Lady Gaga - "Til it Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground

WILL WIN: Diane Warren and Lady Gaga - "Til it Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground

COULD WIN: The Weeknd, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephen Moccio - "Earned It" from Fifty Shades of Grey

SHOULD WIN: Diane Warren and Lady Gaga - "Til it Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees:

Adam Stockhausen/Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich - Bridge of Spies

Eve Stewart/Michael Standish - The Danish Girl

Colin Gibson/Lisa Thompson - Mad Max: Fury Road

Arthur Max/Celia Bobak - The Martian

Jack Fisk/Hamish Purdy - The Revenant

WILL WIN: Colin Gibson/Lisa Thompson - Mad Max: Fury Road

COULD WIN: Jack Fisk/Hamish Purdy - The Revenant

SHOULD WIN: Colin Gibson/Lisa Thompson - Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST SOUND EDITING

Nominees:

Mark Mangini and David White - Mad Max: Fury Road

Oliver Tarney - The Martian

Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender - The Revenant

Alan Robert Murray - Sicario

Matthew Wood and David Acord - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WILL WIN: Mark Mangini and David White - Mad Max: Fury Road

COULD WIN: Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender - The Revenant

SHOULD WIN: Matthew Wood and David Acord - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SOUND MIXING

Nominees:

Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin - Bridge of Spies

Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo - Mad Max: Fury Road

Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth - The Martian

Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek - The Revenant

Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WILL WIN: Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo - Mad Max: Fury Road

COULD WIN: Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom and Christ Duesterdiek - The Revenant

SHOULD WIN: Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees:

Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett - Ex Machina

Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams - Mad Max: Fury Road

Richard Stammers, Anders Landlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner - The Martian

Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer - The Revenant

Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WILL WIN: Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

COULD WIN: Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams - Mad Max: Fury Road

SHOULD WIN: Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett - Ex Machina

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Nominees:

Body Team 12

Chau, beyond the Lines

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Last Day of Freedom

WILL WIN: Body Team 12

COULD WIN: Claude Lanzmann: Specters of the Shoah

SHOULD WIN: Body Team 12

BEST SHORT FILM - ANIMATED

Nominees:

Bear Story

Prologue

Sanjay's Super Team

We Can't Live Without Cosmos

World of Tomorrow

WILL WIN: Sanjay's Super Team

COULD WIN: World of Tomorrow

SHOULD WIN: Sanjay's Super Team

BEST SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION

Nominees:

Ave Maria

Day One

Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)

Shok

Stutterer

WILL WIN: Ave Maria

COULD WIN: Shok

SHOULD WIN: Stutterer

EASY TO READ WINNER LIST

Best Picture: The Big Short

Best Director: Alejandro G. Iñárittu - The Revenant

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant

Best Actress: Brie Larson - Room

Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone - Creed

Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl

Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short

Best Writing - Original Screenplay: Spotlight

Best Animated Feature: Inside Out

Best Documentary Feature: Amy

Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul

Best Cinematography: The Revenant

Best Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Film Editing: The Big Short

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Music (Original Score): The Hateful Eight

Best Music (Original Song): "Til it Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground

Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Documentary Short Subject: Body Team 12

Best Short Film - Animated: Sanjay's Super Team

Best Short Film - Live Action: Ave Maria