Sunday, February 26, 2017

89th Academy Awards Predictions



Welcome, to this year's Academy Awards predictions!  This year has been one of the easiest to predict, based solely on the universal adoration of La La Land. But the Academy Awards are always liable to throw in a surprise or two (looking at you "Ex Machina".) Hopefully, I can help you win your work/school/friend/personal Oscar pool.

(Note: There is an easy to use "Winners" list at the bottom of this page)



BEST PICTURE

Nominees:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

This category started as a wider race, but Manchester by the Sea has seemingly fallen out of favor in recent months. At this point, the award is La La Land's to lose, and the only real competition seems to be Moonlight. However, there is always a chance that immensely popular latecomer Hidden Figures sneaks in. I'm going with the safe bet and picking La La Land

WILL WIN: La La Land
COULD WIN: Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: La La Land or Moonlight
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Jackie and Captain Fantastic




BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees:
Dennis Villeneuve - Arrival
Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

This is actually harder to pick than Best Picture. There have been multiple splits in this category of the past few years, and it is definitely possible that if La La Land wins Best Picture, this is the place to honor Moonlight. That being said, it is hard to bet against La La Land for the major categories and Chazelle did an excellent job. Even though there is small chance that he ends up winning, look to see Villeneuve become a regular in this category in coming years.

WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle - La La Land
COULD WIN: Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: Damien Chazelle - La La Land
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Martin Scorsese - Silence




BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees:
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling - La La Land
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington - Fences

For the entire award season up until December, this was Casey Affleck's award. However, with a SAG win, Denzel Washington is suddenly the front runner. I am very tempted to pick Affleck who gave an excellent performance, but it would be foolish to bet against a performance like Denzel's in Fences. Even though this isn't the year, I'm hoping Viggo gets an Oscar at some point.

WILL WIN: Denzel Washington - Fences
COULD WIN: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
SHOULD WIN: Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Colin Farrell - The Lobster




BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees:
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Ruth Negga - Loving
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Emma Stone - La La Land
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins

At some point they are just going to rename this "the Streep Award." That said, this is not Meryl's year. This award was always thought to be between Portman and Stone, but Huppert has been getting some attention lately. In the end though, I think that Emma Stone will run away with Best Actress and continue La La Land's big night. Side note: I am still not over the Amy Adams snub. 

WILL WIN: Emma Stone - La La Land
COULD WIN: Isabelle Huppert - Elle
SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman - Jackie
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Amy Adams - Arrival




BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees:
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel - Lion
Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals

This is one of those years when both Supporting awards seem relatively set in stone. Outside of a Golden Globes loss, Ali has won almost every single possible award for his performance in Moonlight, and deservedly so! Dev Patel was excellent in Lion, and newcomer Lucas Hedges has a very bright future, but it is definitely Ali's night. 

WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
COULD WIN: Dev Patel - Lion
SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Hugh Grant - Florence Foster Jenkins




BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees:
Viola Davis - Fences
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
Nicole Kidman - Lion
Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

This is even easier to predict that Supporting Actor. It will be Viola Davis, and she hands down deserves it. It is a shame that Naomie Harris's Moonlight performance was not in a different year, because it is truly incredible.

WILL WIN: Viola Davis - Fences
COULD WIN: Naomie Harris - Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis or Naomie Harris
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Janelle Monáe - Moonlight




BEST WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees:
Taylor Sheridan - Hell or High Water
Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou - The Lobster
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
Mike Mills - 20th Century Women

I am not seeing nearly as big of a night for Manchester by the Sea as I did in November, but this is the one award I cannot see slipping away from Lonergan and co. His screenplay was the driving force behind an incredible movie. That said, the Writers Guild awarded Moonlight in this category, a film that is nominated as Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars, so it could end up falling to La La Land if the love for that film is as strong as some pundits have predicted. Personally, I would love for The Lobster to sneak one away for sheer creativity, but it isn't going to happen

WILL WIN: Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
COULD WIN: Damien Chazelle - La La Land
SHOULD WIN: Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou - The Lobster
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Noah Oppenheim - Jackie




BEST WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees:
Eric Heisserer - Arrival
August Wilson - Fences
Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi - Hidden Figures
Luke Davies - Lion
Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney - Moonlight

Screenplay awards are harder to predict this year than usual, all thanks to Moonlight. Moonlight was nominated as an Original Screenplay at most other awards, so it is up against a different crowd. However, none of that will likely matter, as it should run away with this award. There is always a chance that this is Arrivals surprise win of the night, and I do think it will surprisingly win one. 

WILL WIN: Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney - Moonlight
COULD WIN: Eric Heisserer - Arrival
SHOULD WIN: Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney - Moonlight
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Tom Ford - Nocturnal Animals




BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Nominees:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Zootopia has been sweeping this category throughout the year and I don't see that changing tonight, though both Moana and Kubo and the Two Strings have been getting some buzz. Kubo is particularly possible, since it is only the second Animated film to be nominated for Visual Effects (Nightmare Before Christmas.)   

WILL WIN: Zootopia
COULD WIN: Moana
SHOULD WIN: Kubo and the Two Strings




BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees:
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

WILL WIN: O.J.: Made in America
COULD WIN: 13th
SHOULD WIN: O.J. Made in America or 13th




BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees:
Denmark - Land of Mine
Sweden - A Man Called Ove
Iran - The Salesman
Australia - Tanna
Germany - Toni Erdmann

WILL WIN: Iran - The Salesman
COULD WIN: Germany - Toni Erdmann
SHOULD WIN: Germany - Toni Erdmann




BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees:
Bradford Young - Arrival
Linus Sandgren - La La Land
Greig Fraser - Lion
James Laxton - Moonlight
Rodrigo Prieto - Silence

WILL WIN: Linus Sandgren - La La Land
COULD WIN: James Laxton - Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: Rodrigo Prieto - Silence




BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees:
Joanna Johnston - Allied
Colleen Atwood - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Consolata Boyle - Florence Foster Jenkins
Madeline Fontaine - Jackie
Mary Zophres - La La Land

WILL WIN: Mary Zophres - La La Land
COULD WIN: Madeline Fontaine - Jackie
SHOULD WIN: Madeline Fontaine - Jackie




BEST FILM EDITING

Nominees:
Joe Walker - Arrival
John Gilbert - Hacksaw Ridge
Jake Roberts - Hell or High Water
Tom Cross - La La Land
Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon - Moonlight

WILL WIN: Tom Cross - La La Land
COULD WIN: Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon - Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: Tom Cross - La La Land




BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Nominees:
Eva von Bahr and Love Larson - A Man Called Ove
Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo - Star Trek Beyond
Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson - Suicide Squad

WILL WIN: Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo - Star Trek Beyond
COULD WIN: Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson - Suicide Squad
SHOULD WIN:Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo - Star Trek Beyond




BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Nominees:
Mica Levi - Jackie
Justin Hurwitz - La La Land
Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka - Lion
Nicholas Britell - Moonlight
Thomas Newman - Passengers

WILL WIN: Justin Hurwitz - La La Land
COULD WIN: Mica Levi - Jackie
SHOULD WIN: Justin Hurwitz - La La Land




BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Nominees:
Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek, and Justin Paul - "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land
Justin Timberlake, Max Martin, and Karl Johan Schuster (Shellback) - "Can't Stop the Feeling!" from Trolls
Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek, and Justin Paul - "City of Stars" from La La Land
J. Ralph and Sting - "The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story
Lin-Manuel Miranda - "How Far I'll Go" from Moana

WILL WIN: Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek, and Justin Paul - "City of Stars" from La La Land
COULD WIN: Lin-Manuel Miranda - "How Far I'll Go" from Moana
SHOULD WIN: Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek, and Justin Paul - "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land




BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees:
Patrice Vermette/Paul Hotte - Arrival
Stuart Craig/Anna Pinnock - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Jess Gonchor/Nancy Haigh - Hail, Caesar!
David Wasco/Sandy Reynolds-Wasco - La La Land
Guy Hendrix Dyas/Gene Serdena - Passengers

WILL WIN: David Wasco/Sandy Reynolds-Wasco - La La Land
COULD WIN: Patrice Vermette/Paul Hotte - Arrival
SHOULD WIN: David Wasco/Sandy Reynolds-Wasco - La La Land




BEST SOUND EDITING

Nominees:
Sylvain Bellemare - Arrival
Wylie Stateman and Renée Tondelli - Deepwater Horizon
Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright - Hacksaw Ridge
Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan - La La Land
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman - Sully

WILL WIN: Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright - Hacksaw Ridge
COULD WIN: Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan - La La Land
SHOULD WIN: Sylvain Bellemare - Arrival




BEST SOUND MIXING

Nominees:
Bernard Gariépy Strobl and Claude La Haye - Arrival
Kevin O'Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace - Hacksaw Ridge
Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow - La La Land
David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio, and Stuart Wilson - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, and Mac Ruth - 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

WILL WIN: Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow - La La Land
COULD WIN: Kevin O'Connel, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace - Hacksaw Ridge
SHOULD WIN: Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow - La La Land




BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees:
Craig Hammock, Jason Snell, Jason Billington, and Burt Dalton - Deepwater Horizon
Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, and Paul Corbould - Doctor Strange
Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon - The Jungle Book
Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean, and Brad Schiff - Kubo and the Two Strings
John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

WILL WIN: Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon - The Jungle Book
COULD WIN: Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, and Paul Corbould - Doctor Strange
SHOULD WIN: John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story




BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Nominees:
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

WILL WIN: The White Helmets
COULD WIN: Joe's Violin
SHOULD WIN: Extremis




BEST SHORT FILM - ANIMATED

Nominees:
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

WILL WIN: Piper
COULD WIN: Blind Vaysha
SHOULD WIN: Piper




BEST SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION

Nominees:
Ennemis intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

WILL WIN: Ennemis intérieurs
COULD WIN: Timecode
SHOULD WIN: Ennemis intérieurs




EASY TO READ WINNER LIST

Best Picture: La La Land
Best Director: Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Best Actor: Denzel Washington - Fences
Best Actress: Emma Stone - La La Land
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis - Fences
Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Best Writing - Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Best Animated Feature: Zootopia
Best Documentary Feature: O.J.: Made in America
Best Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Costume Design: La La Land
Best Film Editing: La La Land
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Music (Original Score): La La Land
Best Music (Original Song): "City of Stars" from La La Land
Best Production Design: La La Land
Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound Mixing: La La Land
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Documentary Short Subject: The White Helmets
Best Short Film - Animated: Piper
Best Short Film - Live Action: Ennemis intérieurs

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